Will it ever end?

As snow blankets the area to some it may seem like a beautiful reminder of the season, for others it is one more hurdle dealt by this growing season. As corn and even some beans still stand around the county we may ask 'when will we close this harvest?' Undoubtedly this latest snow and rain event is one more blow to seeing any harvest in the near future. With the ground not yet frozen and now melting snow we can be certain we will not have soils fit for harvest for some time. Our soybeans are certainly the most critical if you still have some standing. In the field I was in this morning I didn't see many open pods, to my surprise, however decisions should be made soon on what the economics look like for harvesting, based on expected yield (leaving the field). Corn is not as critical and can wait. An interesting article from Wisconsin on late season harvest of corn will help you in your decisions of how long to wait to harvest corn. Wisconsin also has a helpful calculator for this same subject.

Regardless of what we want to do it seems like we may have to wait for frozen ground before any more field operations take place. Good luck to all who still are waiting to finish up your harvest.

Marketing on the mind?

Does anyone have any idea what to think about the price of corn right now? It seems that the market place is quickly shifting between bullish and bearish views of the crop. Over the past weeks to even the past days we have been seeing large fluxes in prices anywhere from a few cents up to 14-15 cent changes in a day. All of this brings to mind marketing. As many of you know this time of the year becomes filled with days of meetings for me as well as planning for the upcoming winter meeting season. This week has been no different (hence the blog isn't getting updated quite as often). However today at a meeting I was talking with one of our educators from risk management and it looks like we will can get a marketing class to come to the county this winter. For some of us marketing seems foreign since commodities are kept on farm and fed to livestock, however, even if you only feed livestock chances are you are largely effected by the market since you need to decide when to buy and not to buy additional feeds. Hopefully we will get a meeting together for this winter and we can all cut through a little bit of the haze surrounding marketing.

Selling Considerations; Shell versus Silage

As corn dries down many look to prices and markets to see what options they have. In Franklin County we typically have the option of either selling silage or grain depending on what seems to have the most favorable economics. I am not an expert in the markets so I'm not going to tell you that this is black and white, however I do have a few considerations you should make prior to selling your crop.

The main difference on the agronomic side of silage versus grain is the nutrients removed from the field when we take the whole plant versus just the grain. For this example I'm going to look at only phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). Nitrogen can also play a role but the system is very complex so it is not clear exactly how much we will keep around until next years growing season either with or without cover crops (this is why we test prior to side dressing N).

So if we look at removal of P and K from silage we can estimate (using Penn State's Agronomy Guide) that we will remove approx. 5.0lbs/Ton of P and 11.0lbs/Ton of K. As a rough estimate we typically consider the conversion from bushels of corn to tons of silage as 6.5-7bu/ton of silage. If we use this conversion for our removal rates for grain end up at 2.8lbs of P and 2.1 lbs of K removed (7*book values for grain removal). This means that roughly twice the amount of P is removed and over 5 times the amount of K is removed when comparing silage to grain.

So let's do a quick example to clarify. Initial estimates show a 150 bu/ac grain yield or 21.5 Ton/ac silage yield in a specific field. We are trying to decide if we should sell it to the neighbor or keep it for grain. December futures are showing a price of $3.09/bu or$464/ac on this yield. The difference between grain and silage in nutrients removed at this yield will be 47.5 lbs of P and 191.5 lbs of K. With today's price of $0.25/lb. P and $0.50/lb. K this is a difference of $107.63/ac. just to buy back the nutrients you lost by selling silage. If we add that into our grain price ($464) we need $572/ac. or about $27/ton (on 21.5 Ton/ac) to break even with our grain price of $3.09. Obviously neither of these take into account the cost of harvest etc. so keep in mind who is paying for that when pricing your corn.