Selling Considerations; Shell versus Silage

As corn dries down many look to prices and markets to see what options they have. In Franklin County we typically have the option of either selling silage or grain depending on what seems to have the most favorable economics. I am not an expert in the markets so I'm not going to tell you that this is black and white, however I do have a few considerations you should make prior to selling your crop.

The main difference on the agronomic side of silage versus grain is the nutrients removed from the field when we take the whole plant versus just the grain. For this example I'm going to look at only phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). Nitrogen can also play a role but the system is very complex so it is not clear exactly how much we will keep around until next years growing season either with or without cover crops (this is why we test prior to side dressing N).

So if we look at removal of P and K from silage we can estimate (using Penn State's Agronomy Guide) that we will remove approx. 5.0lbs/Ton of P and 11.0lbs/Ton of K. As a rough estimate we typically consider the conversion from bushels of corn to tons of silage as 6.5-7bu/ton of silage. If we use this conversion for our removal rates for grain end up at 2.8lbs of P and 2.1 lbs of K removed (7*book values for grain removal). This means that roughly twice the amount of P is removed and over 5 times the amount of K is removed when comparing silage to grain.

So let's do a quick example to clarify. Initial estimates show a 150 bu/ac grain yield or 21.5 Ton/ac silage yield in a specific field. We are trying to decide if we should sell it to the neighbor or keep it for grain. December futures are showing a price of $3.09/bu or$464/ac on this yield. The difference between grain and silage in nutrients removed at this yield will be 47.5 lbs of P and 191.5 lbs of K. With today's price of $0.25/lb. P and $0.50/lb. K this is a difference of $107.63/ac. just to buy back the nutrients you lost by selling silage. If we add that into our grain price ($464) we need $572/ac. or about $27/ton (on 21.5 Ton/ac) to break even with our grain price of $3.09. Obviously neither of these take into account the cost of harvest etc. so keep in mind who is paying for that when pricing your corn.

Corn Silage Update

As of today our plot is just over 33% D.M. I have noticed a descent amount of silage coming off especially in the southern portion of the county. We are almost where we need to be if we are filling trenches, but we need to be careful we don't push it too quick going into uprights. Again review the comments I have below about setting your kernel processors, I believe this will be crucial.

Adjust those kernel processors!

As the corn slowly dries down I'm seeing some drier ears on some very green stalks. If we continue this trend it may lead to some issues in getting available energy in our silage. If you have a kernel processor you are steps ahead in this area already. However, just because you put out the cash doesn't mean it will work without some attention. When you are out harvesting make sure to take some samples early on to see how the processor is working. To check the kernels take a handful or two of silage and place it in a 5 gallon bucket. Fill the bucket with water then slowly pour off the water. Once the water is pretty well gone you should be left with only kernels. Carefully inspect the kernels to make sure they are well processed and cracked. If the kernels are not cracked adjust the processor to a narrower spacing and test again.

Corn Starts to Dry Again!

I just got done looking at moisture on our plot. In review this was planted on the 29th of April and the variety I'm looking at is a 114 day variety. The moisture this morning finally has moved from the 30-31% D.M. we have been holding at for about a week. Today we are standing at 31.7% D.M. Although this isn't a huge jump it is finally in the right direction. The downside to this is that we are to have rain today and tomorrow which means we probably won't be drying down much going forward. So with all this said it looks like we may be into September before we really get silage harvest rolling. I know many have been pulling into the fields this week but I think for the most part in the county we are still waiting. The silver lining to all of this is that we have quite the crop sitting in the field when we do start in.

Silage continues to wait

Checked the plots again today since the research team is ready to get started on harvest. It still is hanging around the 30-31% D.M. We are sitting right around 2400-2500 growing degree days (GDD) according to Pa Pipe. This puts us about 100 days behind average. This would explain why we are seeing things so slow to mature around the area.

Other observations in the corn plot

Just a quick note of some other observations in the corn plot this morning. The corn overall is very impressive with nice sized ears and good height. I noted that milkline has begun to move on some varieties, however, as noted the total plant moisture has not changed. I also noticed a fair amount of grey leaf spot in the plot, however this will have little to no affect on the plant at this stage. It seems around the county in general we are set to have a great crop this year. Even much of the late corn planted is looking great especially after Friday's rain. Hopefully we will get some real nice corn silage put up so we can make the milk roll once prices return and help fill in the gaps created by this price slump.

Corn Silage Dry Down Slows

I tested the PDMP plot again this morning and it appears our 1in. + rain on Friday has slowed us down a bit. The plot tested at 31% D.M. which is the same figure as Friday a.m. prior to the rain. This combined with an overcast day with some drizzle on Saturday seems to be holding the dry down off for a bit. The U.S. Weather Service is calling for cooler temperatures the begining of the weak with no precip. Hopefully low humidity and clear skies will help the corn to dry down again. I'll keep an eye on the silage plot and will have another posting on moisture on Friday if not before. Just in review this plot was planted on April 29th so you may want to adjust accordingly for your planting dates.

Corn Silage Dry Down

I sampled the PDMP plot this morning and I got a result of 31% dry down. That means in the last 4 days it has changed 6%, or 1.5% per day. In all honesty I thought it may be a little faster then that, however if this trend continues we are looking at harvest to start in another 5-6 days. This seems late for typical harvest, however we have had a cooler than normal growing season, so our degree days haven't mounted as fast as typical.

Other observations this morning was that most of the corn was at dent, however very little to any milk line was present.

Corn Silage Harvest Drawing Near

Corn Silage harvest is just around the corner and I've started taking moistures on the PDMP test plot we have here in the county. On Monday the plots were at 27% D.M. so a little ways to go until we reach 40. We certainly have varied planting dates and stages of maturity around the county, however I do believe we start to see our earliest plantings getting close in the next week or so. The plot I'm sampling was planted on the 29th of April. I'll take another sample tomorrow and post the details.